Matchweek 10 Preview

Brighton currently sit 7th in the expected points table. Yet they are actually 13th. They are under performing both their xG and xGA, not a winning combination that. Meanwhile Leeds are over performing both of those same metrics. At some point you would expect a normalization or a regression to the mean. Seagulls fans will be hoping that happens tomorrow at the Amex.

Leeds are 1 point behind Brighton, but 2 places lower in 15th. The woefulness of the bottom 3 though have left Leeds with little to worry about as far as getting into a relegation scrap. They are able to play with the handbrake off for the most part. The issue for Leeds, even with that hand brake off they are just so limited in attack. Calvert-Lewin has always been a streaky scorer, but at 28 and off the back of several injury interrupted campaigns, those streaks are getting shorter and further apart. He has a grand total of 1 league goal for The Whites, against Wolves which should count for about half a goal. Brenden Aaronsen, in true American fashion, puts himself about the pitch, works his socks off, and tries really really hard. If those qualities were enough to win on the largest stage, the USA would have been World Cup Champions by now… Through October, Leeds have taken 26 more shots than they’ve allowed. That is good enough for the third best positive differential in the league. However they have conceded 5 and only scored 3 goals in that same time. Leeds are converting at about 6%. They will need to do a lot better to keep themselves clear of that relegation scrap.

Brighton will be hoping to get healthier over the next couple of weeks. They’ve been short Mitoma and Hinshelwood, and they have desperately missed them both. As big of an impact as those missing through injury has been Carlos Baleba’s missing form. He has not looked anything like the player Manchester United were so eager to sign over the summer. To the point where James Milner has been preferred over him when the game is in the balance or needing to be recovered. The same James Milner who made history last week by becoming the first in the Premier League to provide an assist to someone born after Milner had made his Premier League debut.

Albion have kept a clean sheet in their last 7 home games against The Whites, but they’ve only kept one clean sheet in their last 21 Premier League games. This looks as good a time as any to make that 8 in a row and 2 in the last 22.

!!Potential Banana Skin Alert!!

Of course its not going to happen. Arsenal are simply put too damn good to get tripped up by an away trip to Burnley. This is was the type of game that would ultimately cost the Gunners in recent seasons. Failing to win an win-able away game, taking only a point when they realistically should have all three. That Arsenal, emotionally brittle when the “pressure is off”, the one that would take their foot off the gas in an “easy game”, that Arsenal looks far in the past.

Arsenal are the best team in England and one of the two best teams in Europe at the moment (hard to argue Bayern on 14 straight victories isn’t slightly in front though). If Arsenal do avoid slipping up at Turf Moore, you might as well start looking into hire rates for open top busses.

Don’t look now but Palace are on a bit of a wobble. At least as much of a wobble as they’ve ever had under Glasner. 1 win in their last 4 league matches. But wait what’s this, there are games outside the league? And Palace just shallacked Liverpool 3-0 in the League Cup? Fair enough.

The funny part, for all their impressive play and unbeaten run to start the season—they are only 10th in the table at the time of recording. Palace have made good work preventing loses. Now they need to start converting more draws to wins if they want to reach their potential. Brentford is a tricky proposition, though.

The Bees, under Andrews, have not been spectacular by any means. But they punch above their weight class. They keep it solid in the back, two banks of 8 in a low block. They have pace in Schade, a battering ram of a forward in Igor Thiago, and a set piece weapon in Kaodie’s long throw (Schade has a huck on him as well, ask Chelsea). Stylistically, they look a lot like their opponents.

All this of course means a boring game, a midfield battle of attrition, right? Probably.

Simply put, this is a 6 pointer. Both these teams are on torrid runs at the moment. Both need to start banking points and fast.

A win for Wolves could see them off the bottom of the table for the first time in weeks. They have shown moments of fight lately, namely in the League Cup against Chelsea. Though they did end up losing that game, they took at 0 - 3 halftime deficit and made a game out of it. Vitor and the Molineux faithful will want to see that second half effort and intensity for the full 90 minutes at Craven Cottage.

On the other side of the coin, with a loss in this game, Fulham could find themselves level on points with Forest and only out of the relegation places by goal difference. It would that a staggeringly large loss by Fulham or win by Forest to drop Fulham into 18th, such is their superior goal differential. You never want to be level on points with the relegation contenders at any point in the season. Failure to right the ship against a wounded Wolves team could see panic stations at the Cottage. I don’t expect the board to make a knee-jerk and drastic move to remove Silva, but his seat will be getting plenty toasty.

Can Manchester United make it four league wins in a row? Will Sean Dyche stop the rot at The City Ground? On current form there’s got to be only one outcome here—United victory.

I’m not so sure. Its not that I rate Sean Dyche tactically as a manager in any capacity. You can’t deny that he can get results, and more importantly he gets a reaction out of his charges. Dyche called his team on the carpet after last weekend. Saying they were “miles off it”. He, of course, was not wrong in this brutal assessment. I do expect him to turn that around this weekend. While they may not bag the three points, we should see a team that is compact and solid, flying into the tackles, competing for every ball. In short, Sean Dyche football.

This is precisely the sort of football that has vexed Ruben Amorim during his United tenure. When the game is open and flowing, his wing back system looks like it could conquer the world. However, when the opposition decides to muddy it up, dig in like its the Battle of Verdun, that same system looks as stodgy as an over steamed pudding (yes, of course I watch the Baking Show). If Forest apply themselves to Dyche’s methods they could walk away from this game with something. A draw feels like a likely outcome, but then again, United under Amorim rarely draw games.

Spurs vs Chelsea, never a dull moment. From the Battle of The Bridge to Romero trying to scalp poor Marc Cucurella, this game always offers something. More often than not that something is in the extra circulars and not the football.

Chelsea come off a poor performance in defeat at home to Sunderland. Meanwhile Spurs had a lovely time in Liverpool, beating Everton 3-0. That they scored all three goals from set pieces will have them very excited to face a Chelsea team who can’t defend their way out of a wet paper bag when it comes to dead ball situations. Any Chelsea supporter who watched the Carabao Cup game against Wolves midweek, and has seen Mickey Van De Ven’s highlights will be quaking in their boots.

Liam Delap returned from injury, played 7 minutes and promptly got himself sent off. What a silly silly boy. Chelsea badly need a player of his style and substance as the focal point, but they also need a player who can stay on the pitch for 90 minutes (even more than they need one who can put the ball in the net). Expect to see Tyrique George reprising his role as The False Nine when the team sheets come out. As underwhelming has he has been in that position, Guiu and Delap have been just as poor. You can at least give George a bit of leeway in that, he’s never been a striker before.