Matchweek 11 Preview pt 1

These two squads are currently experts in vacillating between looking like outside title challengers and bottom halfers. Spurs are on a run of 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw in their last five. While United come into this off an extremely impressive 5 game run that saw them win 3 league games in a row for the first time in Ruben Amorim’s tenure, prior to scraping a draw at Forest. That both clubs posses the exact same 5w 2d 3l record further illustrates my point on the similarities.

For United, the switch to young Senne Lammens in goal has seemed to solidify them a bit. It’s always easy to have a bit more confidence as a defender when you have a goalie behind you who isn’t an absolute comedy routine of bad judgements and poor executions. They are still shipping far too many goals to realistically move out of an upper midtable position. United’s second issue is scoring enough goals regularly, or at least at the right times. 17 goals in the league so far is respectable, but they have only turned those goals into 17 points. Contrast that with Arsenal who have scored just 1 more, but have returned 25 points. They moved on from the light scoring Rasmus Hojlund in favor of the also light scoring, but far more expensive, Benjamin Sesko. That Hojlund is now scoring for fun at Napoli, and Sesko was one of the most desired center forwards in his time at Leipzig should indicate the issue is with Amorim’s set up. But then you remember, Amorim has Viktor Gyokeres scoring by the hatful back in Portugal, so I suppose Manchester United really does just make players worse?

Spurs suffer from the same syndrome. They tend to score a lot in games they win, which makes them look like a much better squad than the are. 17 goals scored, 8 conceded (most of that is down to the very impressive form of Vicario) should have them firmly in the top 4 at this time. Sure, they are only a point off Liverpool, Sunderland, and Bournemouth but can you really say Tottenham look and play like a team competing for UCL? They are erratic, chaotic, manic, and great fun to watch because you never know what you’re going to get. Mickey van de Ven is tied for the team league in goals, at 3. Richarlison, also on 3 goals, has not scored a league goal since September, and next on the list Brennan Johnson hasn’t scored since the second weekend of the season. Scoring by committee can be all well and good. If the volume of chances are there it doesn’t really matter who’s banging them over the line. The worry for Spurs supporters is that Tottenham’s xG is only just shy of 11 goals. From which they have scored 17… Regression to the mean could spell hard times ahead.

This will probably be a fun game to watch. Both sides are still very flawed which often leads to end to end action and/or hilarity. Commentators curse of course means this will be 0-0.

Two teams out of form here. Both clubs having picked up just 1 win in their last 5 attempts. Fulham’s win came in their last outing, after losing the previous 4 straight. Marco Silva will be hoping that win is the start of a streak of it’s own. Everton have picked up two draws to go with an impressive victory over a very good Crystal Palace team. A draw with Sunderland in their last match is nothing to be ashamed of these days.

Moyes has confirmed that the talismanic Iliman Ndiaye is fit and ready to go from the off after having to be withdrawn last weekend. Should that be the case and he does start, the toffees will be much the better team for it. Ndiaye has that bit of something, that little sparkle that can turn a tight match in his favor.

The numbers for both clubs really tell the tale. Average goals per match: 1. Average goals conceded per match: 1. They’ve both kept exactly 2 clean sheets as well. On paper, this is about as evenly matched as you’re likely to see. It is going to take a moment of individual brilliance or misfortune for either side to walk away with all three points.

Don’t look now, but West Ham could claw their way out of the bottom 3 this weekend. It will take a sizable victory at home to Burnley to move above them on goal difference. The 3-1 at home to Newcastle shows that West Ham does have some fight, and more importantly, goals in them. Add to that the fact that Burnley ship goals for fun and this could be the start of redemption for the hammers.

Burnley has kept their head above water by beating the teams around them in the table. Victories over Leeds and Wolves crucial to keeping some distance between them and the bottom three. They will need to pull that off again at the cozy London Stadium. Should they do so, 6 points potentially between them and drop line will do them a world of good going into the November international break.

I’m sure when the fixture list was released, every Gooner put this one down as 3 points in permanent ink. While it likely will be, I don’t think Arsenal will have it all their own way.

The Black Cats have turned the Stadium of Light into a fortress, befitting of a home ground that carries a name straight out of a YA novel dystopian fantasy novel. (It really is a great name isn’t it, The Stadium Of Light. Keep your Spotify Camp Nous or your Emirates or your Etihads. I love a good old fashioned ground with a good old fashioned name) Sunderland make it very difficult on any team that turns up to Wearside. More so, they are stylistically and tactically perfectly set up to provide Arsenals much vaunted defense a stern test. Le Bris is not obsessed with possessing the ball, playing out of the back, smothering the opponent with passes. His team gets vertical, uses their pace and their physicality to launch lighting quick attacks any chance they get. In Isidore, they have a center forward who can give even the best center backs a long day at the office.

Arsenal, of course, do have the best center back pairing in all of world football at the moment. Gabriel is hammer, tough, unerring, no nonsense type of center half while Sliba is the rangy, smooth, ball playing variety. Any team would love to have even one of these thoroughbreds, Arsenal has them both. It will take some brilliance from Sunderland and Isidore to breach this defense. Quite simply, Arsenal are the best defensive team in the last 20 years. There really can be no more questions about that. They don’t give up goals, they don’t even give up shots on goal anymore.

The question mark for Arsenal, as it has been all season in the league, can they create enough from open play? Through 10 games the answer to that has been a resounding no. Setting aside their set piece prowess, Arsenal have only scored 7 goals from open play. That’s not nearly enough to regularly turn draws into victories. Of course, you can’t discount the set piece goals because they are goals and Arsenal are scoring them with regularity. The concern, for a team with title aspirations, is what happens when the conversion percentage on set pieces returns to a more normalized figure? Sunderland might give them a glimpse of that potential future should they defend dead ball situations resolutely.

I hope everyone saw that Carabao Cup match last week. We’re going to be treated to it again. I say treated, but as a Chelsea fan that was as much a horror show as it was a pleasure to watch. That Chelsea then went on to get bodied by the Azerbaijani legends in the Champions League has me all kinds of worried.

Wolves will be looking to pick up their first win of the campaign. They will have to do it without a manager in place. Youth team managers will be taking temporary charge, which is always what you want to see as a supporter. A new manager bounce, even a new temporary manager bounce will be a very welcome sight to the beleaguered traveling faithful.

Expect Wolves to do exactly what worked in the second half of the cup game. Put on Strand Larsen to cause havoc and unsettle a very shaky Chelsea defense and launch ball after ball long into the box. Test if Chelsea have spent any time in training on heading the ball away.