Matchweek 4 Preview

Big Ange back in the opposition dugout at the Emirates so soon! While most of the football world slept in through the international break, Forest were up early and making moves. Bringing an end to what must have been the most protracted sacking of a manager in Premier League history. Nuno’s time was up after the Leicester City draw back in May when Marinakis confronted him on the pitch after Nuno failed to bring the injured Awoniyi off. Forest, given their pick from all the managers in world football, could hardly have found a new manager with a more diametrically opposing style that Big Ange has from Nuno. Postecoglu won’t have had much time to implement his system at the City Ground, but he only knows one way to play and be damned if he won’t play that way on Saturday. While Murillo and Milenkovic are excellent center backs, they don’t possess anywhere near the speed of a Van De Ven (though stats show that no one in the league does as he’s recorded the fastest sprints every season he’s been in the league) required to play the high line Ange demands. 

If Arteta can set aside insistence or ego, play mid-block to turn Forest over as they enter the final third they can spring Gyokeres on counters from the halfway line and this game could get out of hand early. If he doesn’t, it’s still going to be a long day for Selz in the Forest goal. He will have to have a worldie for Forest to come away with anything in this game. On the injury front, the international break served Arsenal nicely. Saliba withdrew from France and has already rejoined training. Ben White is back and ready to go. Saka is really the only injury of note (Havertz likely wouldn’t start here anyway), but Madueke will deputize and terrorize Forest’s left flank. 

Whatever Arteta decides to do, stick to his format or game plan against Big Ange, the Gunners simply have too much for Forest and should win comfortably

Possibly the two most exciting teams in the division at the moment. Two young managers, who love attacking teams and entertaining their supporters. So you know this game will be 0 - 0.

Bournemouth come into this match with a slightly more impactful injury list, as they have Lewis Cook and Unal on the treatment table. Whereas Brighton will see Webster and March surely miss this one, where neither of were likely to be in the first 11 were they fit. Only Weiffers is out for the Seagulls from the list of players likely to force Hurzeler to change his plans.

Bournemouth are coping well with having lost the heart of their defense over the summer transfer window. New signing Diakite, in particular, has stood out and deserves praise for how he’s adapted to the Best League In The World. 

Meanwhile Brighton had a difficult start, points wise, and really should be much closer to Bournemouth in the table. They were unlucky to get only 1 point from their first two games before turning over a rather woeful Manchester City last week. I think you do need to give Brighton and Hurzeler credit for how they approached that game, and how they stayed in the game after going down 1-0. They were more worthy winners on the day.

This should be a very close run affair, but I’m going to give Brighton the slight edge. Seagulls to steal the points.

Which Sunderland is going to turn up at Selhurst park on Saturday? The team that beat West Ham and Brentford or the team that couldn’t finish and slide to defeat at Turf Moor? That unknown will go a long way in determining the outcome of this one. At their best Sunderland are a fun watch and look like they are prepared for a long stay back in the Premier League. On their worst days, yet another example of the growing chasm in class between the Championship and the Premier League. Geertruida and Brobbey have given Le Bris some additional quality to play with. Sunderland look dangerous at both ends of the pitch. Equally like to score 3 as they are to concede 3. 

In Glasner, Crystal Palace have finally found their manager. I get massive Eddie Howe at Bournemouth feelings off this pairing. Glasner is doing quite a lot with the little he is given. He handles his best players being sold away repeatedly and yet he keeps finding the next one up off the assembly line. He will, however, want to get Mateta filling his boots again. One goal in three games is not quite the form he showed in the second half of last season. With Eze gone to the other side of the River Thames, he’ll be counting on JP a lot. 

Picking Palace in this one. Mateta at the double!

Everton look formidable under Moyes. The early whispers about how he’d fit back into Goodison already feel laughably outdated. He’s gone full Moyes-ball and it’s working. Ndiaye and Grealish running the creative channels has given the Toffees something they’ve lacked for years—consistent ball progression into dangerous spaces. Combine that with Beto and Barry bullying center backs again, and suddenly this side has bite. And at the back, Tarkowski still looks like he’s playing with a broom in one hand, sweeping up everything that dares cross halfway.

Villa, meanwhile, look rattled. The start to the season has been nothing short of a stumble. Three games in and Emery is already facing questions about whether last year’s highs were the peak rather than the standard. The midfield looks disjointed, the press uncoordinated, and even Martinez—usually the one steady hand—hasn’t convinced. Watkins cuts a frustrated figure, and Rogers not able to win games on his own so far, Villa are in danger of sinking into a funk before September is even out.

The international break might have been a blessing for Emery. A reset button of sorts. But the question is whether a week of tactical whiteboards and fiery speeches can cover the cracks that have already started to show. Because if Everton get their noses in front early, the crowd will have Goodison bouncing, and Moyes knows exactly how to strangle a game from there.

On current form, you’d have to back Everton. The Villa response might come later this autumn, but this doesn’t feel like the day. Toffees by two.

Fulham are quietly one of the more fascinating tactical puzzles early this season. Silva’s side sit right around mid-table for possession, averaging just over 49%, but it’s the way they use it that stands out. No side has attempted fewer passes into the penalty area per 90, yet they’re top five in expected goals from set pieces. That tells you what you need to know: Fulham aren’t interested in over-playing. They win their corners, lump their free kicks, and trust Palhinha to hoover up the second balls.

Leeds, on the other hand, are the league’s chaos merchants. They’ve pressed higher than anyone not named Liverpool or Arsenal, with a PPDA hovering just under 9, and that intensity has already forced mistakes. Summerville and Gnonto have been particularly sharp in transition, combining for 3 goals and 2 assists in the first three games, and they look like the real edge Leeds have against technically limited sides.

The clash here is obvious. Fulham want to slow this down, drag Leeds into stop-start territory, and turn every break in play into a platform for Willian’s left boot. Leeds want this stretched, broken, end-to-end. If Leeds get the game into a track meet, Fulham don’t have the legs at the back—Ream and Diop aren’t chasing Gnonto into the channels. If Fulham get their grip on the rhythm, Leeds will spend 90 minutes trying to break through Palhinha’s wall and Mitrović’s (still absurd) ability to buy fouls.

Leeds look the likelier, statistically and stylistically, but Fulham at Craven Cottage rarely hand out freebies. Could be the game of the weekend for pure tactical contrast.

Newcastle have started the season with more control than many expected, especially at St. James’ where they’ve averaged higher possession than away from home and limited opponents' counter-attacks effectively. Wolves, by contrast, have shown vulnerability when pressed high leading to turnovers in their defensive third have led to the lion’s share of their expected goals conceded so far.

Newcastle’s ability to play through midfield vs Wolves’ tendency to bypass it with long balls. If Newcastle commit numbers through the middle, they can suffocate Wolves’ outlet options.

Newcastle edge it. Wolves may frustrate early but likely fade.

How long can Graham Potter really survive this? West Ham look flat, uninspired, and most damningly, entirely predictable. For all the talk of “building a possession side,” the Hammers rank bottom five in the league for progressive carries and passes into the final third. It’s sterile possession without punch. Bowen is their only genuine threat, but teams have learned to double him, and once he’s quieted, West Ham look toothless.

Tottenham, under Thomas Frank, are the exact opposite: vertical, efficient, and decisive. He imported the Brentford playbook and supercharged it with Spurs’ superior talent. Kudus has been a revelation since arriving, equal parts dribbler and finisher, and his movement into central spaces gives Spurs a directness West Ham can’t cope with. Johnson pins the full-backs wide, the midfield pivots work in unison to recycle possession, and Spurs keep finding ways to break into the box without wasting touches. They’re top three in the league for final-third entries and among the very best for shot quality.

West Ham’s issue is structural. They don’t press high with conviction, but they also don’t sit deep enough to protect their centre-backs. That “no man’s land” approach leaves yawning gaps between midfield and defence — exactly the zones Kudus and Spurs’ rotating attackers love to invade. Add in the fact West Ham are already running hot against their expected goals conceded, and you can see the dam is ready to burst.

This feels less like a derby and more like a mismatch. Spurs win this comfortably, and it could well spell the end of Graham Potter’s tenure at the London Stadium.

Brentford are still struggling. They got past Villa, but so does everyone these days. Keith Andrews has not convinced anyone that he can keep this side in the division. The numbers don’t help him either — Brentford sit bottom three in the league for expected goals created per 90 (0.8), and they’re conceding shots at a rate of over 15 per match. Combine that with ranking in the bottom five for pressing intensity (PPDA close to 16), and you get a team that neither disrupts opponents nor creates enough themselves. With all three promoted sides starting brightly, the relegation picture could get very uncomfortable.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have had their share of help from VAR this season, but the underlying signs are stronger than they’ve been in years. They’re top four in the league for expected goals created and averaging over 17 shots per game — that’s elite volume. Estevão has been a spark, showing why he was such a hyped signing, while Jamie Bynoe-Gittens is starting to settle on the opposite flank. Add Joao Pedro, who leads Chelsea not only in goals but also xG involvement, and it’s clear why people are calling him the signing of the summer.

Yes, injuries remain a problem, and yes, the summer workload left them looking a bit leggy in the opening weeks. But even a rotated Chelsea side should have too much for Brentford here. The gulf in creativity is stark: Brentford are averaging fewer than 3.5 shots on target per 90; Chelsea almost double that.

Prediction: Chelsea to cruise.

This feels like the definition of a banana skin for Liverpool — back off an international break, at Turf Moor, facing a Burnley side desperate for points. On paper it screams smash-and-grab, 1-0 Burnley. And Scott Parker will set it up exactly that way: a deep block, low risk, hit-and-hope counters. Burnley average just 38% possession so far, and their passing sequences end after fewer than three passes more often than anyone else in the league. It’s bunker football.

But Liverpool just have too much. Even if Salah is a constant, it’s the supporting cast that makes them overwhelming this season. Ekitike is in flying form (averaging 0.55 xG per 90 in his first run of games), and they have just added Alexander Isak, giving Slot two genuine penalty-box killers to play off Mo. Liverpool are creating 2.1 xG per game — second-best in the league — and no side has completed more passes into the penalty area. That’s sustained pressure Burnley simply aren’t built to survive.

The “hope not to be embarrassed” line really is Parker’s reality. Burnley concede 16 shots per game on average and are bottom two in defensive duel win percentage. Sitting deep might delay the inevitable, but it won’t stop it.

Prediction: Liverpool 2–0. Banana skin vibes, sure, but Liverpool’s firepower is too much for Burnley’s bunker.

City don’t often lose three in a row — Pep’s entire career is built on crushing losing streaks before they even start — but right now they look out of sorts. Their possession stats are still gaudy (averaging 66% per game, league-best), but the end product hasn’t followed. Across the last two matches, they’ve created just 1.8 xG combined, their lowest two-game stretch since early 2021. That fluidity in the final third just isn’t clicking.

United, by contrast, actually look a shade more coherent than last season. Their PPDA is down by nearly two full points, suggesting a more structured press, and they’re generating around 13 shots per game compared to barely 10 a year ago. Senne Lammens coming in to eventually Bayindir still feels like a gamble, but the squad itself doesn’t look as fragile.

The fun twist here? Donnarumma likely starts in goal for City and Senne for United. Both are still settling — Donnarumma prone to the occasional overconfident pass, Bayindir (who looks likely to retain his place for now) known for flapping at crosses — and you can almost script the comedy of errors now. A 2–2 scoreline, with both keepers gifting goals, feels right on brand for this weird patch of form.

And yes, Haaland will surely find himself in handbags with someone in red — it’s Derby Day, after all.

Prediction: Score draw, 2–2. A chaotic, silly one that solves nothing for either side. Pep might need that sabbatical sooner than later.