Matchweek 5 Preview

The 247th Merseyside Derby. This game will feature one team playing near the top of their powers against a team struggling to find that top gear. The fun fact, the team playing their best football are 6th in the table while the other tops the table with 4 wins from 4. As they say, if you can’t find em’ grind em’! For any kids under the age of 30 that’s a joke about manual transmission cars… Manual transmissions cars were a type of car that required you to change gears by depressing a clutch.. just ask your grandparents…

Liverpool have not been playing their best football, yet they top the table. They keep finding ways to win. That’s what champions do. Win when you’re not at your best. Liverpool have conceded just 4 goals so far, yet their defense at times look calamitous. Ekitike’s numbers last year were near elite level, though he underperformed his xG. The implication there is with a little improvement in finishing he could be truly world class. It’s still early doors but that improvement looks to have under Slot. Add to that Isak getting fit and up to speed and this team starts to look scary on paper. Oh, and there’s still Mohammed Salah who’s had a “slow start” yet still has 3 goals in 6 games in all competitions.

Everton is maybe the feel good story of the early season. Moyes back home in Everton blue along side the Jack Grealish Redemption Tour and you have one of the most fun teams to watch for narrative alone. On top of that, they’re playing some lovely football. It’s not just agricultural long diagonals and set pieces. There’s some flare and panache about the Toffees. Maybe its the move to the swanky new digs, but Everton have had a glow up and are now can’t miss football. The downside, Everton have been owned by their city rivals in the recent years.

Liverpool have been riding their luck with late goals. If not for Leverkusen’s run two seasons ago I’d say luck is always bound to run out.

This one might be the Premier League’s most exhausting fixture for headline writers: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Tottenham Hotspur. Two clubs with names so long they barely fit on the scoreboard. And much like their titles, both teams carry a lot of expectation into this clash.

On paper — or more accurately, in the spreadsheets — Brighton should be fine. Their xG per game sits around 1.25–1.3, but their goals scored are closer to 1.0. In other words: they’re creating the chances but finishing like they’re blindfolded. Danny Welbeck, bless him, has reverted to type — running, working, pressing, but not scoring. You’d have more luck finding the net with a treasure map and a compass. Brighton desperately need Kaoru Mitoma to rediscover his edge and for Yankuba Minteh to find his scoring boots. Without them, it’s just neat triangles with no punchline. They’re also conceding more than their xG against suggests, leaking sloppy goals that undo all the clever buildup. The upside of underperforming your xGA—reversion to the norm means Brighton should start picking up more points as a result of conceding less.

Tottenham under Thomas Frank are fun. Very fun. Last season they were languishing in 17th place, a club drifting towards obscurity. Fast-forward and they look like a side reborn. Spurs are averaging around 2 goals per game, slightly outperforming their xG, which means they’re clinical when it counts. Just like Frank’s Brentford, they can bloody noses against the big boys but still have that maddening tendency to slip up against “easier” opponents. It’s swagger with a side of self-sabotage. Spurs fans are riding the wave, but the data suggests this might be a bit too good to last.

Brighton have been undercooking their chances. Tottenham have been overcooking theirs. Something’s got to give. And given Spurs’ knack for slipping on banana skins, this feels like the day Brighton finally put it together.

On paper this one doesn’t scream fireworks. Burnley under Scott Parker are compact, disciplined, and allergic to chaos. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, are short on inspiration going forward — they’ve got plenty of running, plenty of effort, but not enough of that final-third magic. Put them together and you don’t get a bonfire; you get two damp logs refusing to catch fire.

This one has all the makings of a low-scoring slog. Burnley under Scott Parker are compact, stubborn, and more than happy to drag a game into the mud. Forest, on the other hand, are trying to live dangerously with Ange’s high line, but they don’t exactly have the weapons to make it bite. It’s a match-up that feels less like fire and gasoline, and more like two damp matches being struck in the rain.

Burnley’s identity is set. Parker drills his teams to within an inch of their lives, and while they don’t always look pretty, they don’t often fall apart. Last season in the Championship they racked up a ridiculous 30 clean sheets, and while the step up to the Premier League has exposed them a bit — their xGA this year sits toward the wrong end of the table — you can still see the structure. The back four never stray, the midfield drops in, and everyone knows exactly where they’re supposed to be. The issue, as ever, is up top. Lyle Foster works hard, presses well, but he doesn’t have the burst of pace to rip through Ange’s high line. Without that outlet, Burnley end up relying on counters, set pieces, and the hope that someone smashes one in from 25 yards.

Forest, meanwhile, are an idea in search of execution. The high line is fun when it works, terrifying when it doesn’t, but this is not a team with Liverpool’s firepower or City’s control. They’ve been scoring about a goal a game while conceding nearly double that, which tells you most of what you need to know. The ambition is admirable, but the creativity just isn’t there. Too often the final ball dies, the runner goes too soon, or the chance never quite materialises. Against Parker’s Burnley, who live for killing the tempo, that can make for a long afternoon.

So what we’ve got here is a team that can’t quite break down compact defenses versus a team that doesn’t quite have the pace to punish a reckless high line. It’s the irresistible force meeting the immovable object — except this time, both are a bit blunt.

This one’s got all the trimmings of a relegation six-pointer masquerading as a mid-table scrap. West Ham, under Graham Potter, are clinging to mid-table mediocrity like a cat to a curtain, while Crystal Palace are just about staying afloat without ever looking like they’ll break the surface tension. If this were a boxing match, it’d be two fighters in the clinch, both too tired to land a punch.

West Ham have been the epitome of inconsistency. They’ve scored 43 goals but conceded 59, with an xG of 47.0 and an xGA of 59.7. That’s a team that can’t defend and can’t finish — a recipe for mid-table purgatory. Their home form has been particularly dire, with only five wins from 19 matches at the London Stadium. The recent 5-1 drubbing by Chelsea was a low point, and the fans are starting to get restless. A loss here could be the final straw for Potter, who’s already under pressure.

Palace, on the other hand, have been quietly going about their business, which is to say, not much at all. They’ve scored 43 goals and conceded 45, with an xG of 62.04 and an xGA of 62.04. That’s a team that creates chances but doesn’t take them, and concedes but not enough to be in real danger. Their away form is slightly better than their home form, but that’s not saying much. They’ve won three of their last six visits to the London Stadium, but they’ve also lost four of their last six games overall. It’s a team that flatters to deceive.

This has the feel of a game that neither team wants to win. West Ham are too disjointed to put together a convincing performance, and Palace are too toothless to exploit any weaknesses.

This isn’t just another fixture; it’s a battle for survival. Wolves, still licking their wounds from a dreadful start to the season, host Leeds United at Molineux in a clash that could define their campaigns. With both teams struggling to find form, this match is as much about avoiding defeat as it is about securing a vital three points.

Wolves have had a nightmare start to the 2025/26 Premier League season, suffering four consecutive losses. Their xG per match is among the lowest in the league, indicating a lack of offensive threat. The absence of Jørgen Strand Larsen, who is recovering from an Achilles injury, has left a significant void in their attack. Despite this, Wolves have extended manager Vitor Pereira's contract, showing a commitment to stability in these turbulent times.

Defensively, Wolves have been porous, conceding goals at an alarming rate. Their xGA (expected goals against) is among the highest in the league, reflecting their struggles to contain opposition attacks. The pressure is mounting, and a positive result against Leeds is imperative to restore confidence and avoid being cut adrift early in the season.

Leeds United, under Daniel Farke, have also had a challenging start to the season, with only one win from their first four matches. Their xG per match suggests they are creating chances but failing to convert them into goals. Injuries have further hampered their attacking options, with key players like Dan James and Willy Gnonto facing late fitness tests ahead of the match.

Defensively, Leeds have been more solid than their counterparts, but they still need to improve to keep clean sheets. Their xGA is respectable, but lapses in concentration have led to conceding avoidable goals. A win at Molineux would not only boost their points tally but also provide a much-needed morale lift.

This Saturday, Old Trafford hosts a fixture that feels almost nostalgic. Chelsea, unbeaten in the league this season, arrive with a 12-year winless streak at the Theatre of Dreams. Their last victory here? May 2013. Since then, it's been seven draws and five defeats.

United, on the other hand, are a team in turmoil. A 3-0 drubbing in the Manchester derby has left manager Ruben Amorim under intense scrutiny. Despite a summer of heavy investment, the team has only managed one win in four league games.

Chelsea's recent form has been a mixed bag. They impressed in spells during their 3-1 loss to Bayern Munich, but the defeat highlighted defensive frailties, including an own goal and lapses in concentration.

However, there's a subplot that could add spice to this encounter. Chelsea's Alejandro Garnacho, once part of United's youth setup, is set to start at Old Trafford. His return is bound to stir emotions, especially considering his departure from United under Amorim's tenure.

United, despite their struggles, have shown resilience. Their attacking prowess, led by the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Bryan Mbeumo, has kept them competitive. If they can find their rhythm, they might just surprise Chelsea.

Craven Cottage is set to host a Premier League encounter between Fulham and Brentford, both teams eager to solidify their positions in the league standings.

Fulham have had a mixed start to the season, securing 5 points from their first 4 matches. Their most recent outing was a narrow 1-0 victory over Leeds United, courtesy of a dramatic last-minute own goal by Leeds defender Gabriel Gudmundsson.

The Cottagers have shown resilience, particularly in their defensive organization. However, they have struggled to convert chances into goals, with an xG of 4.5 and an xGA of 4.2, indicating a balanced but unremarkable start to the campaign.

Manager Marco Silva will be looking to build on the momentum from their recent win and capitalize on their home advantage.

Brentford have also accumulated 5 points from their first 4 matches, with a recent 2-2 draw against Chelsea showcasing their attacking potential.

The Bees have been effective in creating opportunities, boasting an xG of 5.0. However, defensive lapses have been evident, as reflected in their xGA of 5.5. This imbalance has led to inconsistent performances, with the team showing promise in attack but vulnerability at the back.

Manager Keith Andrews will be aiming to tighten the defense while maintaining their offensive threat as they look to secure a positive result at Craven Cottage.

Bournemouth have made an impressive start to the 2025/26 Premier League season, securing 9 points from their first 4 matches. Under the guidance of manager Andoni Iraola, the Cherries have shown resilience and tactical discipline.

Key Stats:

Bournemouth's attacking play has been characterized by efficient finishing and solid defensive organization. Their xG of 5.2 suggests they are creating quality chances and converting them at a respectable rate. Defensively, they have managed to keep two clean sheets, indicating a well-drilled backline.

Newcastle United, managed by Eddie Howe, have had a mixed start to the season with 5 points from 4 matches. They currently sit 10th in the league standings. Newcastle's attacking metrics are on par with Bournemouth's, with an xG of 5.5 indicating they are generating similar quality chances. However, their xGA of 5.0 suggests they have been more susceptible defensively, conceding more than expected based on the quality of chances faced. This imbalance has led to inconsistent performances, with the team showing promise in attack but vulnerability at the back.

The midfield battle will be pivotal. Bournemouth's midfield, led by the experienced Philip Billing, will look to dominate possession and dictate the tempo of the game. Newcastle's Bruno Guimarães will be tasked with breaking up play and transitioning the ball quickly to their forwards.

Set pieces could also play a significant role, with both teams possessing aerial threats. Bournemouth's Marcos Senesi and Newcastle's Woltemade are both formidable in the air and could be key targets during dead-ball situations.

Sunderland have made an impressive return to the Premier League, securing 7 points from their first 4 matches. Their recent 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace showcased their resilience and defensive solidity. Sunderland's attacking play has been characterized by efficient finishing and solid defensive organization. Their xG of 5.0 suggests they are creating quality chances and converting them at a respectable rate. Defensively, they have managed to keep two clean sheets, indicating a well-drilled backline.

Aston Villa, managed by Unai Emery, have had a challenging start to the season, failing to score in their opening four league matches. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 draw against Everton, where they managed just one shot on target. The team has been hampered by injuries to key players and a lack of attacking cohesion, with Ollie Watkins yet to find the back of the net. Villa's attacking metrics are concerning, with an xG of 2.5 indicating they are struggling to create quality chances. Defensively, they have been more solid, conceding only four goals, but their inability to score has been a significant issue.

Given Sunderland's strong home form and Villa's ongoing struggles in front of goal, this match is expected to be closely contested. Sunderland's ability to capitalize on set pieces and maintain defensive solidity could give them the edge in this encounter.

Arsenal host Manchester City at the Emirates Stadium in a pivotal Premier League clash. Arsenal, under Mikel Arteta, have made a solid start to the season, securing 9 points from their first 4 matches. They currently sit second in the league standings, just behind Liverpool. In contrast, Manchester City, managed by Pep Guardiola, have had a mixed start, with 5 points from 4 matches, placing them 8th in the table.

Arsenal's early season performances have been commendable, with victories over Manchester United and Leeds United, and a narrow defeat to Liverpool. Their attacking play has been characterized by efficient finishing and solid defensive organization. However, they have yet to face a team of City's caliber, making this match a significant test of their title credentials.

Arsenal's xG of 5.8 suggests they are creating quality chances and converting them at a respectable rate. Defensively, they have managed to keep two clean sheets, indicating a well-drilled backline. However, their xGA of 3.2 suggests they have been more susceptible defensively, conceding more chances than expected. Yet they’ve only conceded 1 goal from that xGA.

Manchester City have had a challenging start to the season, with 5 points from 4 matches. City's squad depth and quality are unquestionable, and they will be looking to bounce back and challenge for the title. City's attacking metrics are on par with Arsenal's, with an xG of 5.5 indicating they are generating similar quality chances. However, their xGA of 5.0 suggests they have been more susceptible defensively, conceding more than expected based on the quality of chances faced. This imbalance has led to inconsistent performances, with the team showing promise in attack but vulnerability at the back.

In this matchup, the midfield battle will be pivotal. Arsenal's midfield, led by the experienced Martin Ødegaard, will look to dominate possession and dictate the tempo of the game. Manchester City's Rodri will be tasked with breaking up play and transitioning the ball quickly to their forwards.

Set pieces could also play a significant role, with both teams possessing aerial threats. Arsenal's Gabriel Magalhães and City's Ruben Dias are both formidable in the air and could be key targets during dead-ball situations.

Given Arsenal's strong home form and City's defensive inconsistencies, this match is expected to be closely contested. Arsenal's ability to capitalize on set pieces and maintain defensive solidity could give them the edge in this encounter.