Matchweek 9 Preview

It’s been far too long since all three promoted teams stayed in the division for a Sophomore album (ok… it hasn’t been that long. 22/23 season but it feels as though it has).

A win here for Leeds and West Ham are in real trouble. Sitting on 4 points, just 1 place off the bottom is not where you want to be heading into November and then the congested fixture list over the holiday period. It will also mean that Leeds give themselves a little breathing room from that red line at the bottom. A win takes Leeds up to 11 points, 6 clear of trap door back to dominating the Championship depending on what Forest can conjure up later in the weekend.

Neither of these teams score many, and they ship handfuls. Not exactly a recipe for success in this or any league. West Ham will be hoping that Nuno can bring some of the solidity he had at Forest down to the capital with him. The problem is, he had better players at forest. You’d expect him to after Forest spent 3 transfer windows buying every player they could get their hands on. Murillo and Milenkovic are quality defenders, and West Ham don’t have anyone there equal. Looking further up the pitch at West Ham and their forward line is a murderer’s row of mediocrity outside of Jarrod Bowen. Sidebar for a word on Bowen— he has not looked himself since the foot fracture, or possibly since the Captain’s armband. That could be down to the weight of carrying 10 other adult men on his back for 90 minutes every week, or the weight of captaining his Father-in-law’s favorite team, but he looks a league off of where he was and where I’d expect him to be currently.

I’m expecting a cagey affair. Nuno does not go hell for leather no matter how much his opponent tries to entice him to do so. I think West Ham might actually shade this one. They have to get a win at some point, right?… right?!

I did not have Sunderland on 14 points in October on my bingo card. Admittedly, I didn’t watch much of Le Bris’ squad in the Championship last season. They recruited well since being promoted and they are playing like the solid mid-table Premier League stalwart I remember. Good for them! That they finished 24 points behind Leeds and Burnley en route to promotion only makes their current position above those same two even more impressive.

Le Bris has built an adaptable, flexible team that’s hard to beat. They’re happy soaking up pressure, forcing clubs to try and go around their ranked masses and pump balls into the box where their center halves can dominate. Then when they do get the chance to break they do so with urgency, pace and precision. However, one of the aforementioned solid center-halves, Alderete, will be missing for this match as confirmed by Le Bris in his pre-match presser. Nordi Mukiele will have to find an early understanding with his new partner if they are to repel Chelsea’s interchanging attacking units. His long throw could cause some havoc of their own, given how well Chelsea have defended that particular threat so far this season.

Chelsea have won 4 in a row in all competitions now. Doing so without a host of their first 11, and then even more of that 11 not at full fitness. They did get some help from Ajax midweek, making the fool-hardy decision to try and play a man down for 75 minutes at the home of the World Champions. Estevao was electric under the brightest lights. Only his wayward finishing stopped him from bagging 3 or even 4 goals for himself. I don’t expect him to start here though. Expect Neto on the right, Garnacho on the left until we’ve either worn them down or need a spark at halftime.

Newcastle and Fulham meet this weekend as two clubs sitting far lower in the table than they ever imagined back in August. Both have been more unlucky than poor, but the table doesn’t tend to care about expected goals or near misses. For Newcastle, the tone around Eddie Howe has shifted from admiration to apprehension. The murmurs about his job security are faint but persistent, the sort that don’t go away with polite denials. What makes it harder for Howe to stomach is that his team’s performances haven’t been those of a side in trouble. They’ve posted an xG of around 9.8 this season while conceding an xGA of just 5.7—numbers that would normally belong to a top-half side. They’re creating, they’re restricting, they’re doing the right things. They’re just not getting the bounce of the ball, and in this league, that’s enough to turn a solid start into a crisis.

Fulham are in the same part of the table but living a very different story. Marco Silva isn’t under threat; in fact, the club are trying to tie him down to a new contract amid outside interest. There’s a recognition at Craven Cottage that the performances are better than the points suggest. Their xG sits around 7.7, their xGA at 10.7, and while that imbalance shows a few defensive lapses, it doesn’t reflect a side in freefall. Fulham have controlled large stretches of games and looked organized and composed, but the results just haven’t followed. Missed chances, small mistakes, a bad deflection here or there—it’s been that kind of campaign.

For Newcastle, this feels like a test of nerve. Howe’s system still produces opportunities, but the confidence that carried them through the last two seasons looks frayed. A single win might change the entire tone. Bruno Guimarães remains central to everything they do, but the spark around him hasn’t quite caught fire yet. Isak continues to work hard up front, but he’s too often isolated, while the defense—though statistically sound—seems one slip away from calamity.

Fulham, meanwhile, look steady even in their inconsistency. Silva’s tactical identity hasn’t wavered: disciplined structure, quick transitions, wide overloads. Rodrigo Muniz has given them a focal point and Andreas Pereira continues to be their creative hinge, but they’re still lacking that ruthless edge in front of goal. Which has been even more evident with Muniz sidelined. If they find it, they’ll climb quickly.

This match feels like one of those where perception might shift for either side. A Newcastle win and the noise around Howe dies down; a Fulham victory and their position finally starts matching their performances. Both teams are due a bit of fortune, and both are better than their league standing implies. Expect a tense, cagey match, full of good football and nervous energy, between two sides who probably deserve a little more than what they’ve gotten so far.

From a narrative perspective United arrive with questions swirling around manager Rúben Amorim’s system and organization (yes, United under Amorim is the set-up this season), and conventional expectation would have them favored at home. But the recent history with Brighton tells a different story: since May 2022 Brighton have won six of their last seven top-flight matches against United. They beat United 3-1 at Old Trafford in January 2025 despite United enjoying marginally more possession (51.5 % to 48.5 %) and more total shots (10 vs 6) — yet United had zero clear-cut chances, Brighton had three.

For Brighton, the vibe is quite different: the management under Fabian Hürzeler is secure, the style clear, and the players buy-in visible. The Seagulls have exploited United’s left-hand side and they’ll fancy their chances again. Minteh’s pace, directness and ability to run at a centre-half rather than a speedy full-back gives Brighton a tactical edge versus United’s three-four-three (or variations thereof) under Amorim. United’s system often leaves wide channels exposed when the wing-back/broad midfielder hybrid isn’t disciplined enough, and when Minteh drifts into these spaces he becomes a headache.

United, meanwhile, will feel they have the players to dominate possession and impose tempo but repeatedly they’ve been undone by transitions, set-piece vulnerability or just a lack of cutting edge. The fact that Brighton hold a better recent win-rate than almost any opponent they face underlines how much United struggle against this particular opponent. For example, Brighton’s 47 % win-rate versus United is the highest win-rate any club holds against the Red Devils in Premier League history.

Tactically: expect Brighton to sit with compact shape, invite United to take possession, then break with pace via Minteh (and likely Kaoru Mitoma) down the flanks. United will try to dominate and recycle, but if they commit too many bodies forward Brighton’s counter-attacks will hurt. United’s full-backs and centre-halves must stay alert.

From my vantage this match tilts slightly in Brighton’s favour. United at home might still take it, but given the evidence and the style-match-up I believe Brighton will do what they do best: impose their structure, frustrate United, exploit those channels, and leave Old Trafford with a result. United will have spells of pressure, maybe even take the lead, but Brighton’s directness and United’s recent defensive lapses suggest the Seagulls will turn one good moment into three.

This one has all the hallmarks of a banana skin for the Reds.

Liverpool arrive off a high of a 5-1 romp over Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League. That’s the kind of result that lifts spirits, but I’m not buying that narrative as full-proof of a turnaround just yet. Under head coach Arne Slot they’re still showing signs of inconsistency, especially in the Premier League. Brentford, meanwhile, might not be title contenders, but they’re far from pushovers. They score, they concede—it’s noisy, it’s open, and in truth that sounds a lot like Liverpool at the moment.

The head-to-head paints one story: in their last eight meetings Brentford have won just once, Liverpool six times with one draw. Brentford have scored 7 goals in those eight games, Liverpool 19. So statistically one might expect Liverpool to stroll—but context matters. Brentford at home are capable of making life difficult, and Liverpool’s form shows cracks.

Brentford’s recent results show that while they concede (which Liverpool do too), they also pose threats. The space they offer on transitions can and will be exploited. For Liverpool: the structure under Slot still looks good on paper, but the follow-through less convincing. They’ve got the quality to win here, maybe they should, yet the manner of their recent Premier League stumbles suggests “should” isn’t enough.

For this match I expect Liverpool to be favorites, sure—but I expect caution. This does not feel like a comfortable away win. Brentford will make it messy, they’ll haul this into the trenches. Liverpool might stop the rot—and I lean toward them doing so—but a draw feels a very realistic outcome. If Liverpool don’t turn up with intensity and clarity, Brentford will make them sweat.

A team that doesn’t concede versus one that simply can’t stop scoring. The pieces are in place for Arsenal, and Palace have the striker in form to give them a scare.

Arsenal arrive with that rare blend of ruthless defense and steady progression. Last season they posted an xG of 59.9 and an xGA of 34.4, meaning they expected to score nearly 60 goals and to concede just over 34. On a per-90 basis they were around 1.81 xG and 0.91 xGA according to one model. So this is a team that’s far more than just “looks good” — their defensive solidity is real, and their scoring ability is consistent. Meanwhile Crystal Palace, under their new direction, have the attacking firepower to cause damage. Enter Jean‑Philippe Mateta, currently in stellar form. He has recorded a hat-trick and produced 4 goals in his last 5 Premier League appearances. For the 2024-25 season he scored 14 goals and his xG was around 13.5, meaning he has been delivering roughly what might be expected. On the flip side, Arsenal’s new front-man Viktor Gyökeres is not yet lighting up the stats in the Premier League; his 2025-26 output includes 3 goals from 3.4 xG in eight matches, two of those are penalties mind you. His non-penalty goals 1 goal from 2.4 expected. On current performances his stats put him in the company of players like Vlahovic, Thierno Barry, and Evanilson. Not bad names, but not what you expect when you bought Viktor Gyokeres. Some might argue Arsenal spent big to secure a “super-car striker” from the Portuguese league only to find it’s useless in London traffic. That gives Palace belief.

Tactically this is intriguing. Arsenal defend with discipline — centre-halves such as William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães will not be having sleepless nights, but they’ll be well aware of Mateta’s threat: the power, the movement, the ability to run in behind. Palace know that if they give even a sliver of room, Mateta will sniff it out. For Arsenal, the message is clear: maintain the shape, limit transitions, and make Gyökeres’ service quality count. For Palace: exploit any bits of slack, use Mateta as the spear-point, and make it uncomfortable.

Historically Arsenal have dominated this fixture: they’ve won 16 of the last 27 matches, Crystal Palace only 3, with 8 draws. So while Palace have the attacking impetus, Arsenal have the upper hand in terms of record, resources and defensive reliability. Palace will make this one lively, Mateta will have his moments, but I believe Arsenal are simply too resolute defensively and too consistent across the squad for Palace to have a real chance of full points. The title picture? It’s looking like Arsenal’s to lose — and this is the sort of match they should take care of.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City — two sides heading in from very different mid-weeks but each with something to prove.

Villa arrive following a bumpy trip in the Europa League in which they missed a crucial penalty and eventually fell 2-1. Meanwhile City made light work of their midweek Champions League tie, winning 2-0 “without getting out of second gear” as the media put it. On paper the advantage clearly lies with City. Under Pep Guardiola they appear to have found a balance that was missing at the start of the campaign: defensively improved, cleaner transitions, and with their talisman Erling Haaland firing again. Villa, under Unai Emery, have improved substantially after a slow start, but the signs from that mid-week defeat suggest they remain vulnerable. Villa’s defensive set-up was exposed repeatedly: their high line and transitions were punished.

In terms of head-to-head and broader context: City have won the overwhelming majority of their matches against Villa – for example, the all-time league record shows City with 52 wins, 15 draws and 16 losses versus Villa. Villa do have confidence – they’ve won recent Premier League matches and the crowd at Villa Park will give them energy – but the gulf in class, particularly at the top end of the pitch for City, still stands out.

Tactically this will be intriguing. Villa will want to press and exploit breaks, especially down wide and with lively attackers. But City’s ability to dominate possession, recycle and then hit you with Haaland and others means Villa cannot afford to concede early or leave gaps in their structure. City no longer look unsettled; they look ready. My feeling is City will get the job done. Villa may make it competitive for periods, especially at home, but the quality and momentum are on City’s side. City keeping the pressure up on the title race by taking three points.

For Forest the narrative has sharply reversed. The sacking of Ange Postecoglou after just 39 days and no wins under his watch has led to the appointment of Sean Dyche. Dyche's arrival signals a return to the kind of defensively-sound, hard-to-beat style that suits this squad better. Early signs are promising: Forest’s early bit of solidity under Dyche is showing the board made a quick course correction. The stats underline exactly how stark their slump has been: in 2025-26 so far, Forest have scored just 5 goals and conceded 15 in eight Premier League games (xG ≈ 8.7, xGA ≈ 14.1) under their new look.

Against that backdrop, the move to shore things up rather than chase expansive football looks sensible and timely. Expect Dyche to rely on the creativity of Morgan Gibbs‑White to unlock defences while the back-line is drilled to frustrate.

On the other side, Bournemouth are enjoying what feel like the halcyon days of their recent Premier League chapter. Under Andoni Iraola they’ve built a side rolling along with confidence, attacking intent and home comfort. They’re unbeaten in their last nine league meetings with Forest (W5 D4) since the Championship days. Their home form has been particularly reliable: at the Vitality Stadium they’ve been scoring with regularity and conceding far less than many would have expected. The evidence suggests that Iraola is steadily building his profile among the game’s emerging tactical names, and Bournemouth are the ones reaping the rewards.

Tactically this should be an interesting match: Forest will likely be compact, pragmatic, disciplined under Dyche, looking first to frustrate and then hit on moments of transition via Gibbs-White and others. Bournemouth, in contrast, will try to enforce their tempo, press the opposition, exploit wide spaces and home advantage. The challenge for Forest will be that Bournemouth know their strengths and have a strong recent record in this fixture.

Bournemouth have the edge. Their form, home record and head-to-head history give them a tangible advantage. But I won’t rule out Forest responding under Dyche’s new regime and making this competitive. I expect the Cherries to pick up the win, but the Tricky Trees will give a fight and show signs of the stabilization the new coach hopes for.

For Wolves this one is about must-get-three-points territory.

Wolves really need a win. Their survival is delicately poised and if they fail to pick up points before the holidays they risk having the season slip away. Losing this kind of fixture could put Vítor Pereira’s reign at Molineux under threat — not because the club necessarily panics immediately, but because time and opportunity begin to vanish when you have a run of games where you should be taking points. The worrying part for Wolves is where the goals are going to come from. One of their reliable sources, Jørgen Strand Larsen, has been linked with moves, there are suggestions his head might have been turned this summer — and when your attacking talent is unsettled you start second-guessing everything. Meanwhile the rest of the squad haven’t stepped up enough to fill the void.

Burnley come to town in a deceptively calm state. They’ve been stable — maybe not spectacular — but the fact that there are three worse teams than them so far has been helpful in keeping the immediate pressure off Scott Parker’s men. That said: they sit just two points clear of the drop zone and if Sean Dyche gets his Nottingham Forest side firing then the pressure at his old stamping grounds ratchet up fast. This “winnable” looking game for Wolves has danger written all over it.

Tactically you’d expect Wolves to try to assert themselves: at home they’ll want to take the game to Burnley, but will they have the composure and the cutting edge? Their stats are worrying. H2H data shows Wolves average about 1.4 home goals against Burnley but concede around 0.7 at home to them. In the most up-to-date preview model, Wolves are given a modest win probability (~42.5 %) while Burnley are at ~27.7 %. The issue is finishing and consistency, not a lack of intent.

Burnley, for their part, will look to be compact, hard to break down, and hit on the break. They know Wolves need results; they can sit in and make them work. If Wolves don’t score early or impose their game, you can imagine Burnley frustrating them.

Wolves will probably dominate possession and territory but I’m not convinced they’ll have the ruthless edge to turn that into a comfortable win. Burnley will make it tense. I lean Wolves edging it, but it won’t be pretty. If Wolves don’t pick up the points, this becomes a very slippery slope.

What’s the deal with Spurs? One day they steamroll a top opponent, the next they give up 23 attempts on goal and survive only due to their goalkeeper. The question for this game is: which version turns up?

Everton come into this with a welcome boost: Jack Grealish is back available, which the Toffees will be desperately thankful for given their attacking inconsistencies. Under David Moyes they have had moments of resilience and structure, yet the danger remains that the veteran boss so often takes his teams on those dreaded losing runs too.

In their head-to-head history Everton have only won 8 of the last 38 meetings, Spurs 15, and 15 draws. Tottenham clearly have the edge historically, but Everton’s home form and their ability to frustrate cannot be ignored. Recent stats tell us that over 50% of past Everton-Spurs games have seen “Both Teams To Score”, and on average about 2.38 goals per match between them.

Tottenham’s recent ups and downs: they arrived at this fixture after that 23-attempts-given-up game, and their defensive improvement is claimed but the attack has wobbled. Everton, for their part, at home have shown toughness, and with Grealish back their creative spark is restored. Moyes knows his job is survival, stability first; for Spurs under Thomas Frank it’s about consistency and proving the high end of their potential.

Tactically expect Everton to set up compactly, use Grealish to unlock things and make Tottenham’s mistakes count. Tottenham, conversely, will aim to impose themselves, dominate possession, and test Everton’s lines through quick transitions and wide play. But given their recent instability and Everton’s backing at home, the most likely outcome is not a comfortable win for Spurs but something more measured.

My prediction: 1-1 draw. It’s the “safe” scoreline but carries a caveat — for Tottenham this isn’t just a draw, it should be a statement win. If they don’t take it, then the “which Spurs turned up” question gets louder.