Premier League Prediction

By the numbers (xG anyway) Hull City should have been relegated from the Championship to League One last season. Instead, they found themselves in the promotion final, owing to some good fortune and swift recompense for Southampton’s cheating. There’s no plausible scenario I can see where Hull score enough goals to stay in the Premier League. While they brought in Maeda from Celtic, they will still largely rely on Ollie McBurnie as their man source of goals. No disrespect to my football doppelgänger, that is just not a recipe that leads to success.

Another pick that makes its self here. Ipswich finished second to Coventry City and earned themselves an automatic promotion last season. It’s a shame it’s going to be another short stay for the Tractor Boys.

They’ve brought back Julio Encisco from Strasbourg on a permanent deal. While he can be an entertainer and scorer of absolute bangers, we’ve already seen he is unlikely to produce those moments week after week in the Premier League. Saša Lukić joined from Fulham on a free transfer. He’ll bring proven premier league operator and some needed experience to the midfield. Gary O’Neil is now at the helm, having also joined from a short stint at Strasbourg.

They will be entertaining and a fan favorite, but ultimately fall far short of staying up.

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Andoni Iraola skipped town to move up north and take over Liverpool. This alone is enough to see the cherries come back down to earth with a bump. That they will do it in one of the worst kits in recent memory will surely be poetic.

Marco Rose is an interesting choice to replace Iraola. On paper he has the pedigree, haven finished second with Dortmund. However dig deeper and you’ll see he’s largely failed to live up an incredible 71% win rate at Salzburg. Having lasted about a year at the aforementioned Dortmund (failing to advance from their UCL group then dropping out of Europa League at the hands of Rangers. This was with Erling Haaland) and then let go after failing to arrest a horrible run of form at Leipzig. Iraola had that ability to make a team better than the sum of it’s parts. It remains to be seen if Rose can achieve that same feat.

Junior Kroupi and Amine Adli are both out to start the season. Evanilson does not inspire enough confidence for me to believe Bournemouth won’t be in real trouble by the time Kroupi returns.

Fulham said good bye to Raul Jimenez, Issa Diop, Lukić, and more importantly Harry Wilson and Marco Silva. In return they brought in Arbeloa and Garcia from Real Madrid to manage the team and score the goals, respectively.

I think Fulham will miss Harry Wilson’s creativeness, and his energy on the pitch. They haven’t truly replaced what he brought to the team last season where they were only ever as good on the day as Wilson was. I see them struggling to score and reverting to a low block to try and remain defensively solid. Look for them to play not to lose more than they play to win. They will have just enough to stay up because there will be three teams less good.

Steam rolled the Championship last season. They haven’t had much in the way of turnover in the squad in terms of incoming or leavings. The biggest question mark right now is can they weather Wright’s injury to start the season? Will Ellis Simms score enough in his place to get the Sky Blues up the right end of the table?

Last season I picked Brentford to finish 15th. I did not expect them to be able to weather the changes across the major players in their squad and on the bench. Turns out I was a fool.

Well shame on me then because I’m still that same fool, picking them to finish 15th again. Keith Andrews impressed the hell out of me. He cobbled together an effective and efficient football club. Why 15th again then? They ran out of steam in the final third of the season and missed out on finishing in the European places. Is that a portent of what’s to come this season? What’s the realistic likelihood Igor Thiago scores 20 goals again? I just can’t see it happening and the Bees will drop from their 9th place finish last season while never being in any real relegation threat.

A straight swap of Brennan Johnson for Dwight McNeil just makes zero sense. Oliver Glasner was the glue that held this team to the middle of the table. Which him gone, Palace moves closer to the yo-yo they once were.

Three teams I can’t separate. They all have relative strengths and weaknesses here. Everton have the steady hand of Moyes, a Jordan Pickford who can still steal games for you. Leeds have recruited well on top of what was a decent squad to begin with, and they still have Calvert-Lewin who can score in bunches. Forest are easily the best team of the three, but I fear for their squad depth in handling European duties and they lost Elliot Anderson (and might lose Gibbs-White to Chelsea if the rumors are to be believed).

Three teams who will be solid if not spectacular all season. Putting them in any order you like here.

What an amazing return to the Premier League. Le Bris is the real deal.

They are in 10th because this is simply a squad too thin to handle the rigors of European football along side a league campaign.

Turmoil is almost too calm a word for what the Toon have been going through up there on Tyneside. They have just about lost all resemblance to the team that played in the Champions League just one season prior to last. Most impactful of all is Eddie Howe’s (completely understandable) decision to walk away. One positive bit of news, Anthony Elanga suffered only a contusion and not a broken leg as was initially feared. They have recruited well, but how do you replace Bruno G, Anthony Gordon, and Eddie Howe? All while still having not really replaced Isak from a year ago.

I don’t expect them to be terrible, but I don’t expect them to compete for Europe either.

Find themselves in a similar position to Newcastle. Forced to sell their best players to maintain “Profit and sustainability rules” (meanwhile other teams have 115 charges still looming and selling players in bulk deals to play funny with their values) year on year.

Rodgers has gone to Chelsea for a record fee. There’s still a good chance Olie Watkins leaves as well. Tielmans of course has trotted off to Manchester United. I only have Villa above Newcastle thanks to Unai Emery. I trust him to find a way to stay competitive.

De Zerbi arrived just in the nick of time last season. Organized a talented by underperforming group of individuals into something almost akin to a team. Then Spurs went out and bank rolled there guy to the tune of an entirely new first 11, or just about.

Have Spurs overpaid for everyone they purchased this summer? If you ask me, absolutely. De Zerbi is great manager, right up until the point his ego and attitude gets in the way. With the entirely new cast of characters, he’s runway has been extended. Expect Spurs, with only 1 game a week, to be a top half team all season. They will flirt with returning to Europe only to just miss out on the big prize of UCL qualification.

Manchester City outside the top 3? Surely I jest? This is a team in transition. You can’t quantify the impact of the single greatest club manager of all time walking away. Enzo Maresca is a good coach, he’s not Pep. Foden has been lost in the wilderness for the last 2.5 seasons and I’m not sure his likely to return. Bernardo Silva has gone. Rodri, back to his best at the World Cup is also gone.

They have offloaded some deadwood in an attempt balance the books after paying a (then) English record fee for Elliot Anderson. Though they may yet break the bank for Enzo Fernandez as well. There’s too many question marks about what this City team will be for me to be confident they can continue at pace. Let’s also not forget they were absolutely dog walked by a second choice Arsenal in the preseason friendly Community Shield.

They are a good squad getting better and better. Another year under Fabian Hurzeler. Another season (potentially) in Europe. It’s hard to be against the most well run football club in the division.

The Champions League anthem playing over the Amex tannoy is going to be glorious and expect Tony Bloom to shed a tear.

The vibes are vibing around Old Trafford. Carrick has returned the glory days! I’m not so sure. When you peel back the carpet, you’ll find a team that benefited from playing the absolute minimum number of matches, as well as career best campaigns from two players the wrong side of 30.

They will be good, not great, but the signs are positive.

Officially in their Unc era now. Chelsea’s board has finally paid heed to the call that you can’t win anything with kids. So they went and got two players a combined 70+ years of age to add some nous to a club bursting with potential.

Xabi Alonso has proven he can do the job. Sure he failed at Madrid, but that says more about Madrid and player power than it says anything about his abilities to manage a football club. While there are still many questions marks around this team, they’ve shown that when they turn out, and keep 11 men on the pitch, they are as good as any team in the division.

Iraola is, quite possibly, the best manager in the Premier League. Liverpool just have too many holes to fill from a squad that is aging out of it’s prime.

They will be in the fight, but come up short.

Another year older and another year wiser. The youngest team in the division started to gel under Maresca. Only a December/January swoon kept them from being in the title race.

They’ve matured. Maresca has matured. He won’t be down playing their chances this season. The momentum from the trophy wins will carry them into this season knowing they have it within them to win the whole thing. They won’t. But they will push the entire way.

Simply the best, most settled team in the country and maybe all of Europe. Are they fun to watch? Not really. Are they endearing to neutrals? Certainly not. Is their online “fandom” painful? Absolutely. But they’ve earned the right to be all of those now that they are champions.

They easily retain their crown in another somewhat down year, 88 points achieved for the Gunners.